Ekim's Gamer View: Death and the Norse Maiden
Ekim, 2004-02-20

Well, it finally happened. Is it a good thing, or a bad thing? That is indeed a very complicated, but still very important question. Although we have to be sorry for all the people whose work went down the drain following the announcement of Mythica's cancellation, and all the jobs that were cut with it, we still have to reflect on the impact this will have on the mmorpg market.

One Must Fall

Earlier this week Dialogue talked about the reasons why Mythica probably collapsed, and so I wont dwell too much on that aspect which was already well covered there. I'm thinking of the impact it will have on the industry, and on gamers. As I have mentioned before, this is something that some gamers, including yours truly, have been wishing to happen for a while now. But beyond just wishing for it to happen, we're wishing that this event will actually have a true impact on the games that we play in the mmorpg genre. Before Mythica's fans start calling me cruel and heartless, I must say that it couldn't have happened to a better game. This event was truly a sad one, but unfortunately necessary for the well-being of the genre.

Had it happened to any other studio it wouldn't have had the same meaning. In fact, when Funcom cancelled their own Norse mythology-based game about a year after the launch of AO no one gave it the same importance as this. But back then the reasons seemed to be based on the performance of AO alone rather than the market itself. The game had gone through some dismal times, and there seemed to be nothing that the developer could do to regain the players' respect. In that kind of setting, how could a developer think of commercializing another title? They couldn't, and so the game was put to rest.

But Mythica was strong even before its release. It wooed many gamers, and many press members also. There was a lot of talk surrounding it, and it was backed by a publisher with deep pockets. Many gamers thought Mythica could not fail. But apparently someone at Microsoft did, and decided to forget their 20 million dollar investment. Suddenly the money they were planning on getting back once the game was released didn't matter anymore, and the thought of losing more was chief among their fears. Suddenly the Cash Cow that is supposed to be the mmorpg genre didn't seem so promising to them anymore…

Suffer the Storm

If you put yourself in the shoes of other, smaller publishers for a second, and you look at Microsoft's decision from their perspective, you'd probably be scared. What did Microsoft see of the future that they haven't? Mythica reportedly had everything to be successful, so why cancel it? In the next few weeks there will be some very nervous accountants hitting the books because of this event. Whether some players believe it or not (and many of you apparently don't for some enigmatic reason) there are some hefty investments involved in releasing an mmorpg. The cost of producing the game itself is just the tip of the iceberg, and it's probably a tiny tip at that. When you factor in the infrastructure costs involved, it can be downright scary, and it could take some time before a publisher can start seeing a profit out of the venture.

But enough about numbers. What does it mean to us gamers? I guess it can possibly mean many things, and the following months will show us exactly what kind of impact Mythica's cancellation will have on other publishers. One possible scenario is that other publishers will follow suit and decide to drop their game. Think it's highly impossible? If Microsoft was willing to flush 20 million dollars down the toilet for a game that was, by all accounts, bound to be successful at least in the first few months, how do you think a small publisher will feel about half of that amount for games that have half the expected success? In a few months we could see a few developers trying to find new publishers. I think it's very likely especially for the games that are in their earlier development phases, pre-beta.

Already the industry seems to be in a lull. Suddenly the news is hard to find. The real news is anyway. The developers continue to work on their games, but maybe they're now looking over their shoulders and wondering what their publisher is thinking after this. And we, poor gamers of this world, sit and wait the passing of the storm. Storms are devastating, it's true, but it's also a herald of better times. The genre needed this small hurricane. Without being too sadistic, I personally would have wished this would have happened to a game that was already released, backed by a Microsoft-size publisher. Then it would have been an earth-shattering earthquake instead of a small twister. But a twister is still very devastating on its own.

So for all these gloomy words I have, I still predict better times for mmorpgs because of this event. And if in fact some publishers decide to drop out of the race because of Microsoft's actions it will still have some good to it. Yes, some games will fall into forgetfulness, but the ones that will survive this storm will be better because, and in spite of it. And if none of the publishers decide to turn tail and run, maybe they will decide to stay and have a better care about what gamers really want. Because they'll realize that it's not good enough to have a ton of hype surrounding a multiplayer game: these beasts need to survive the hype far better than any single-player game after they launch. They also need to survive the jaded communities, which is no small feat!

And in the end we, gamers of all ages, will end up on the winning side, finally.