Predictions for the 2005 MMORPG Market
Devin Cambridge, 2005-01-26

As the digital winds die down after an exciting fourth sales quarter of 2004, the dust slowly settles on the MMORPG market. The massively interactive rush slows and the titles that remain duke it out for the attention of online community gamers. Many titles fell such as Wish and the Microsoft backed Mythica. Others stand tired and weary on the battlefield like soldiers who dreamt of the spoils of war only to come to realize the horrors of real battle. Even the mighty and often sung World of Warcraft (WoW) stands bloodied by backend problems. Their servers decimated by downtime, one wonders if despite phenomenal sales numbers of on shelf product the subscriptions will hold in the long run. The remaining combatants, even the mighty Star Wars Galaxies, stare at the landscape and know, even if subconsciously, that the territory to gain is limited. It is a zero sum game that even the mightiest of server farm siege machines may not overcome.

Like all technology fantasies, the hopes and dreams of the technologists eventually succumb to market forces. And as the last twenty five years have shown us, the best technology does not always win. 2003 exhibited the dreams of many who thought they could create a paradigm shift in gaming. 2004 shifted the game genre into reality. Technologies such as instancing (WoW), ship to ship combat (SWG), massive battle engines (Ryzom), massive landscapes (WISH, Dark and Light) all fought for mindshare in the space. In light, only the first two have truly thrived in the fray. What is a lesson to be learnt from the fight? In today's MMORPGs, technology without content will not save you. Many game insiders said the same thing at E3 last year. Your world must be interesting to explore. It must be original. Many of the titles we saw with great technology that would enhance the immersion of the game forgot to include content that would sustain it. Just-another-dungeon-crawl seemed to be the axiom for creating MMORPGs. The ideology behind many games was to provide a framework for social engineering, rather than a participatory story. The thought that mere computer addiction will save your title once a player enters the game will not hold in the long run. To maintain subscriptions, publishers must have a game with goals and play that allow the player to be important. Redundant tasks eventually make the player feel like a factory worker whose toil produces fruits that do not sustain.

In single player titles, you can afford to produce a story and game that captures a few months of game play. In an MMORPG where the costs run much higher for production and maintenance, the stakes are much higher. The profit lies with the long term subscriptions. Most executives will be asking this year not what will be the next big MMORPG, but rather, how do you maintain subscriptions in an existing MMO title and how do you attract more money into a title?

Content is King: the new technological advancement

The present history of MMORPGs shows that the market place is a zero sum game. The established subscribers possess modern attention spans. If a new title pops up and manages to capture the market, that title simply enlists the players from existing titles. Online players tend not to be individualistic, but will normally join the world that established friends join. If friends begin to switch, they tend to switch also. Thus, providing a world that allows people to maintain their cabals becomes all important in the long run. These cabals become exclusive. The thought that everyone wants to play with everyone else does not hold. Rather, the MMORPG genre really stands to create social pockets of like minded people.

Because retaining subscriptions is such a large element of the MMORPG genre success, expect to see future technology advances to reflect less on the need for large scale interaction and more on story and character development. Instancing provides the genre with new possibilities in story telling. Technologies that allow better story management should be the next push on the backend. Instance management remains key in the long run. The MMORPG companies have a challenge in that they need to provide much more unique content to keep the subscriptions alive. This requires the formation of long term writing teams and instancing designers. It also includes the use of programmed dynamic storyline generators that create stories and quests that are much more than a simple assassination or fed-ex task. Investing in technologies that self manage storyline and character development is paramount to long term survival. Also, expect to see better character and avatar management technologies. Customization of look and feel of the avatars drives the player. Tools that allow subscribers the ability to continually customize their character's look, skills, and even backgrounds remain a driving element in MMORPG subscriptions. In addition to pushing the look of avatars with items such as cloth physics and in game model modification tools, technology developers that allow for quick background generation can expect to see some retention of interest in their offering. Combined with instancing, the potential to give the much sought after casual gamer a unique individual goal in a personal instanced game segment based on a randomly generated background snippet establishes the player with a long term personal reason to remain in the game. A quickly generated character background also gives those players who do not want to write a custom history a method to add depth to their character. However, with the push in making the online role playing experience more personable, managing the overall cohesive look of the world will remain a challenge. This will fall on the intellectual property managers of the enterprise to put limits on what can be done visually and textually in the game.

Canabalism: the other red meat

The battlefield provides those looking for a quick technological boost to their titles with an all you can eat buffet. Some very good technology applied to a title with addition story based gravy should enable the companies still standing backend sustenance. WISH's server technology and seamless boundary transitions could greatly aid a lot of existing MMORPG's who are looking to make their backend more manageable and their game play smoother. Dark and Light also possesses a pretty good technology (V-World) that does something similar to WISH. In the PVP arena, Nevrax's massive combat engine could make massive combat interesting by establishing large battlegrounds. The opportunity also lies for the savvy marketing team to offer refugee transition assistance to those whose titles are falling by the wayside.

If you port it, they will come: The console expands the numbers in the gaming arena.

The PC business got a solid boost in 2004 from some awesome technology pushes. Half Life 2 and Doom 3 excited people enough to upgrade their video cards and motherboards just so they could see these long awaited titles in their full vertexed glory. Sales of PC titles spiked. But part of the spike can be attributed to online massively multiplayer gaming. However, in the brave new world of gaming, consoles still continue the onslaught to take control of the landscape. Like Alexander the Great across the then known Hellenistic world, the console continues to assimilate all those in its path and expand its territory. The war will be lost in the long run by those consoles makers who underestimate the potential market. Sony reels already from lackluster hardware fulfillment numbers from the new slim PS2 and PlayStation Portable. The MMO market took a hit when LucasArts abandoned their plans to release Star Wars Galaxies on Playstation and Xbox consoles in 2004 as they declared SWG and its expansions would be a PC only title. But LucasArts still stands at the periphery of the battle like the cavalry on the hill. However, it remains to be seen if another MMO console title with the Star Wars brand might be in the development in the future after looking at the success of Final Fantasy Online for the PlayStation. Sony released Final Fantasy XI Online for the PS2 in March of 2004, which brings the question what does the juggernaut Microsoft plan to execute on the Xbox to counter this development? There are several MMORPG currently slated for the Xbox. Phantasy Star Online remains Xbox's first MMO release after the popular Japanese developed RPG made its way onto the Xbox after a short tenure on the GameCube. Microsoft however cancelled two MMORPGs slated for the Xbox, True Fantasy Online and Infiltrator: Shadow Wars. However, this leaves the question of what is Microsoft's strategy for the Xbox with regards to MMORPGs? It would seem odd that despite their statement that the MMORPG arena is a perilous one, Microsoft would abandon the market considering their aggressive stance on making Xbox live the premier online gaming service. Looking at their history of title development, their strategy remains acquiring titles from the industry's top developers with a track record. One possibility exists with their recent cabal formed with Electronic Arts. The Sims Online might seem like a quick and readily available title to tap. But while The Sims line does well with multiple demographics capturing the female market in numbers not seen in any other title yet produced, Sims Online turned out to be a disappointment. In the slightly anti-social Darwinian pond that is the MMORPG arena, it seems that doll-housing doesn't seem to play well when one has to share tea with an unruly 12 year old male with bad table manners. Ultima Online would seem a given choice to come out of the relationship. With Microsoft's commitment to making the Xbox the game player's platform of choice, Microsoft carefully selects its titles. Other major players in this category from which Microsoft could choose are the upcoming Matrix Online (Warner Brothers) and World of Warcraft (Blizzard). EverQuest would be ruled out due to its association with Sony. Matrix Online seems a risky bet since the franchise seems shaky due to the lackluster fan response over the last two movies in the trilogy. WoW seems a likely choice, but Blizzard might not maintain the XBOX exclusivity that Microsoft seems to value in negotiations. A smarter move would be to solidify a relationship with Korea's NCsoft to release City of Heroes on a console. City of Heroes possesses all the elements that make a good MMORPG. Well thought out zones, decent writing, a dedication to avatar style that seems to capture a female audience, and the upcoming PVP expansion should attract the typical online gamer who wishes to test their skills and settle grudges, real or imaginary. Another option might be Guild Wars whose graphics caught the eye of reviewers during their recent beta. ArenaSoft, formed by a group of ex-Blizzard employees, develops guild wars with backing from publisher NCsoft. But the title doesn't seem to be getting much press and could greatly benefit from an alliance from the great advertising juggernaut.

Advertising is not a four letter word (It Goes to Eleven!)

Both in the single player title market and the online game market, title numbers are directly influenced by advertising. Last year's Prince of Persia: Sands of Time advertising campaign helped get the numbers to 2 million units after a slow start. Later in the year, Halo 2's marketing onslaught lead to 1.5 million unit presales. To reach the masses, advertising using broadcast media remains paramount. Also expect in game advertising to enhance revenues to increase. Already, companies like Nielson Ratings are developing online technologies to track in game advertising assets to generate what are called CPM numbers. Smart publishers leverage the technologies to gain more revenue and to provide the players with real world rewards such as related product giveaways and advertiser backed account payments. Also expect some annoying things like in game coupons. Advertising presents designers with a challenge as products that have no relationship to the game world need integration. Convergence will also lend its muscle as broadcast, film and video games merge to create a seamless advertising campaign. Expect to see more intellectual property designed to integrate all three aspects of media into one cohesive world.

War isn't Pretty

Still standing on the battlefield remain titles such as EverQuest series, Sims Online, Ultima Online series, Dark Age of Camelot series, World of Warcraft, Star Wars Galaxies, Asheron's Call series, Final Fantasy XI Online, Ryzom, City of Heros, and Lineage II. As Dungeon and Dragons Online, , Middle Earth Online and Guild Wars enter the fray, some titles teeter on the precipice like Adellion, Anarchy Online (who is offering free accounts till 2006), and The Sims Online. Looking at the bodies littering the field, Mythica, WISH, True Fantasy Online, Dragon Empires, and Ultima X (giving way to expansion of the Ultima Online universe whose addition of Samurai Empire shows where EA put their development dollars) all fell while Warhammer Online lingers like a ghost in the mist.