Is it possible that we're seeing the beginnings of a bad year for MMORPGs? Well, maybe not bad in general, but perhaps the first year where some of its many games will fall? So far, even though there have been failures, or very bumpy roads for some of the titles in the genre, they still managed to survive. One merely needs to look at Anarchy Online's story and they'll see what I mean. But will this year be the downfall for some of those struggling games?

Future: Uncertain...

Let's face it : there are many new games coming out this year, or at least scheduled to come out in the next few months. Horizons, Realms of Torment, Dragon Empires, Shadowbane and Star Wars Galaxies to name but a few of the most well known titles. When I look at the games currently available, I can only ask myself some serious questions. As of right now, almost three full months after its release AC2 hasn't lured players in droves. Actually it's rather dismal and worrying sometimes when you realize that its small population is scattered among too many servers. When you have just a little over 1500 players roaming AC2's servers, while over 9000 are playing DAoC at the same time, a game that's over 1 year older, you have a problem... (source of numbers: AC2HQ and Camelot Herald outside of peak hours) Earth & Beyond has been struggling from day one. Although their game was initially practically flawless in the technical department, it was found to be lacking in many respects by lots of players. How else can you explain the free 1.2GB download for a "demo" and a week of free play time. Anarchy Online offered the same free "demo" through download, and as far as we can see the game's population hasn't increased dramatically. So this literally means that even if the publishers bend over backwards to actually offer their games free - that is completely free - for a few days, they are still not getting any bigger player-bases...

Luring players with a gnawed bone

As previously mentioned, with the number of MMORPG titles coming up this should be a big year. So, can the above mentioned games hope to compete? If they couldn't attract enough players from the beginning, can they really hope to steal some of the frustrated players when the new games come out? And what about the "Star Wars effect" that's about to break out on the PC gaming industry? You can't have me believe that any of the people involved with the previously mentioned games aren't nervous right about now. SWG could potentially have players immigrating in droves, on top of luring new players to the genre. Any other game coming along after this one better have something very interesting, or they better hope that SWG will be a major flop. Where does all this leave the likes of AO, E&B and AC2? What will happen to the still popular EverQuest and DAoC? What about UO? This could potentially be the year that we see some resilient games disappear. There is a place for competition in the MMORPG market, of course. There are enough willing players to have more than just one game on the map at any given time. Certainly there could be 4 or 5 big ones living alongside one another. But can there be more? Given the lack of success of some of the current crop of titles available, I don't see that there can be. Not unless they are niche games, tailored for some particular piece of the market, like A Tale in the Desert for instance.

A dying genre, or does it just need a transfusion?

What does this all tell us? Is it a sign that the genre is already sick? I think it's more a major sign that the genre needs to renew itself a little. Too many new games are just like the ones before them. When I reviewed AC2 I touched upon this. A good game, but not good enough to convince me to switch because I'm already doing all this somewhere else. Would I really switch only because of graphics or ease of use? No, the other game was hard to get into, but I've invested enough time in it so that now it comes easy to me. A new player might have something different to say, but are there enough new players to the genre willing to buy into AC2 or E&B or any other game right now? Apparently not. The genre needs new blood. The current recipe doesn't seem to attract too many new players as it is. Will this new blood come from this year's many new titles? I just don't know, and who can truly say. Some of these games will offer something new, or at least they promise to on their shiny web pages. I just hope they follow through. Too many others didn't before them. Otherwise the MMORPG genre will be condemned to live out from selling boxes to players who will buy-in for the initial month before bailing out. That's certainly not what the publishers want. The secret to convincing the players to switch games is in offering them something new and interesting, not re-heating up old features we're already being served elsewhere, and still playing with I might add.